WASHINGTON — United States intelligence companies consider that no less than one Iranian missile by chance shot down a Ukrainian jetliner over Iran this week, American officers stated Thursday, a tragic coda to escalated navy battle between Washington and Tehran.

Officers had a “excessive stage of confidence” that the Iranians introduced down the airliner by mistake, one American official stated. The official stated that two missiles fired from an Iranian air protection system, the SA-15, shot down the airliner.

The Ukrainian airliner, a Boeing 737-800, went down on Wednesday morning, killing no less than 176 individuals. It had turned again towards the Tehran airport earlier than it crashed in an enormous explosion minutes after takeoff, based on an initial Iranian report launched on Thursday. The report stated that the airplane, sure for Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, was in flames earlier than it hit the bottom however didn’t ship a misery sign.

Though each the USA and Iran now seem like backing away from a bigger navy confrontation, the brand new intelligence means that the lack of life from the downing of the airplane was a direct results of these heightened tensions between the nations.

A safety digicam captured the impression — first the predawn darkness, then a sequence of blinding bursts of sunshine within the distance, adopted by a storm of burning particles within the foreground.

The circumstances of the catastrophe raised suspicions that the airliner might have been attacked, maybe as a result of it was mistaken for an American warplane; the crash occurred simply hours after Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles at United States targets in Iraq, with Tehran presumably bracing for doable American retaliation.

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American officers have been reluctant to publicly assign blame for the downing of the plane, apparently to maintain from inflaming tensions with Iran.

The SA-15 missile is designed to function at medium to very low altitude and intercept each plane and guided weapons, based on navy paperwork. It has a most vary of 15.5 miles and might intercept plane and missiles at an altitude of as much as 32,800 ft.

A cell system, the SA-15 may have been introduced out by the Iranian navy to defend the airport in the event that they believed the USA navy was desiring to counter assault them after the missile strike. If the Iranians believed that the U.S. was going to focus on their airport or different services with guided missiles, it may have been used to attempt to intercept them.

The SA-15 can monitor a number of targets, and search to shoot down two directly, that means it will probably fireplace a number of missiles practically concurrently, based on the navy paperwork.

The feedback from American officers got here after the Iranians, by way of the Worldwide Civil Aviation Group, invited the Nationwide Transportation Security Board of the USA to help within the investigation regardless of earlier stories that the Individuals wouldn’t be concerned, based on two individuals accustomed to the matter who spoke on situation of anonymity.

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The NTSB has reached out to the State Division to find out the right way to proceed, the individuals stated. Sanctions in opposition to Iran forestall Boeing from contacting the Iranians with out an export license, they stated.

On Wednesday, a spokesman for Iran’s armed forces, Abolfazl Shekarchi, was quoted by the Iranian information media as saying that the crash was not a results of any navy motion.

“That is ridiculous,” Mr. Shekarchi was quoted as saying. “A lot of the passengers on this flight had been our valued younger Iranian women and men. No matter we do, we do it for the safety and protection of our nation and our individuals.”

President Trump, talking on the White Home on Thursday after an occasion saying new environmental laws, was requested in regards to the downed airliner.

“I’ve my suspicions,” he stated. “I don’t wish to say that as a result of different individuals have their suspicions additionally. It’s a tragic factor after I see that. It’s a tragic factor.”

He added that the crash may have been an accident.

“However any person may have made a mistake on the opposite facet,” Mr. Trump stated. “It was flying in a fairly tough neighborhood and any person may have made a mistake. Some individuals say it was mechanical. I personally don’t suppose that’s even a query, personally. So we’ll see what occurs.”

On Thursday, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the Nationwide Safety and Protection Council of Ukraine, stated that investigators had been following up on unconfirmed stories that fragments of a Russian-made Tor surface-to-air missile — a system utilized by Iran — had been discovered close to the place the airplane, a Boeing 737-800, got here down.

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Ukraine was negotiating with Iran to permit the investigators to go looking the crash web site close to Tehran for doable rocket fragments, he told Censor.net, a Ukrainian information outlet.

The chances of a terrorist act, a collision with an airborne object akin to a drone, and an engine explosion had been additionally being examined as doable causes of the crash, Mr. Danilov stated on his Facebook page.

Ukraine brings distinctive expertise to bear on the case: In 2014, after Russian-backed separatists took management of elements of japanese Ukraine, an antiaircraft missile that international investigators later said was Russian-made, shot down Malaysia Airways Flight 17 there, killing all 298 individuals aboard.

The SA-15 is much like the identical sort of missile system that induced that crash, that means the passengers aboard the flight out of Tehran might have confronted the same destiny: silence adopted by a sudden explosion that despatched shrapnel and particles spiraling by way of the fuselage, quickly depressurizing the cabin earlier than the plane’s uncontrolled descent towards the bottom.

Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt reported from Washington, Anton Troianovski from Kyiv, Ukraine, and Natalie Kitroeff from New York. Thomas Gibbons-Neff contributed reporting from Washington and Andrew E. Kramer and Maria Varenikova from Moscow.

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